Beyond Isolated Predictors: A Multi-Directional Socio-Psychological Model of Women’s Voting Behavior in Punjab, Pakistan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62843/jssr.v6i5.785Keywords:
Female Voting Behavior, Socio-Psychological Model, Political Participation, Women Voters, Punjab, Pakistan, PLS-SEMAbstract
Female electoral participation in Punjab, Pakistan, is shaped by interdependent institutional, social, and psychological forces rather than isolated predictors. Punjab has approximately 36.34 million registered female voters, while women aged 18 years and older constitute 55.77 percent of the total female population of approximately 116.61 million, underscoring the substantial scale of the potential female electorate. This study examines a multi-directional model of socio-psychological influences, including Weak Institutions and Structural Enforcement (WISE), Community Power Structure (COPS), Education Disparities and Financial Dependency (EDFD), Peer and Community Influence (PECI), Social Cultural Norms (SOCN), Social Norms and Groups (SONG), Misinformation and Fact Checking (MIFC), Facilities and Mobility Limitations (FAML), Security Threat (SETH), and Voting Behavior (VOBE). The model was estimated using PLS-SEM. However, the cross-sectional survey data consisted of 1,459 women who participated in the 2015 general elections in Kenya, selected through multistage sampling. The structural results identify strong cascading relationships, including COPS→WISE (β = 1.000), WISE→EDFD (β = 0.986), EDFD→PECI (β = 0.575), PECI→SOCN (β = 0.990), and SOCN→VOBE (β = 0.536). The pathway COPS→WISE→EDFD→PECI→SOCN→VOBE was significant (β = 0.301, p < 0.001), while PECI→SOCN→VOBE demonstrated a substantial effect (β = 0.530, p < 0.001). The model explained 32.5 percent of the variation in female voting behavior. The findings highlight interconnected institutional, socioeconomic, community, and socio-psychological influences on women's electoral decisions. Policy interventions should integrate institutional accountability, women's education, financial empowerment, community support, and gender-inclusive electoral access.
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